MVCA Watershed Conditions Statement - Flood Outlook - March 3, 2025

The Maitland Valley Conservation Authority is issuing a Watershed Conditions Statement – Flood Outlook for all municipalities in the Maitland and Nine Mile River watersheds.

Extended cold temperatures and abundant snowfall have resulted in an above-average snowpack across the Maitland and Nine Mile River watersheds. During a snow survey conducted on Friday, February 28, Maitland Conservation staff recorded snow water equivalent (SWE) measurements ranging from 90 to 170 mm. Higher amounts were generally observed in the northern regions with lower amounts to the south. While not record-breaking, this amount of water in the snowpack is considerably higher than normal for this time of year and can be attributed to an absence of thaws since December 31, 2024.
Carrying this amount of snowpack into the spring brings significant flood potential. Although flooding is not guaranteed, the risk is elevated as temperatures rise and rainfall events become more frequent. Additionally, river ice remains a concern, with the potential for ice jams once breakup from a substantial melt occurs.
The current weather forecast calls for a brief warmup with rain overnight Tuesday through Wednesday. This event is currently not expected to generate enough runoff to result in flooding as temperatures are forecast to quickly return back to freezing; however, dangerous conditions can be expected due to weakening ice and unstable snow around river banks.
We remind residents to exercise caution near all watercourses. Slippery banks combined with unstable ice and cold water temperatures pose a significant hazard. As we progress into March, river ice will become increasingly dangerous and unpredictable.
Maitland Conservation is closely monitoring watershed conditions and incoming weather events and will issue flood statements as needed.